Çayır, MustafaErsen, Nadir2026-07-022026-07-02202500126772https://hdl.handle.net/11494/6232In this study, the effect of the effective exchange rate on the industrial production index, capacity utilization rate, import and export of the furniture products sector was investigated. The analysis covers the period from 2007 to 2023, and the data consists of month observations. Since some of the variables are non-linear and not stationary at the same level, nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag limit test (NARDL), which takes into account asymmetric effects, was used as a method. According to the results of the research, it has been determined that in the short term, downward movements in the effective exchange rate increase the capacity utilization rate of the furniture sector with a significance of 5 %, while upward movements in the effective exchange rate decrease the industrial production index of the furniture sector with a significance of 1 %. Additionally, the downward movements in the effective exchange rate negatively affect the export of furniture products in the long term, while it positively affects the import of furniture in the short term.U ovom je radu istražen utjecaj efektivnog tečaja na indeks industrijske proizvodnje, stopu iskorištenosti kapaciteta te na uvoz i izvoz u sektoru namještaja. Analiza obuhvaća razdoblje od 2007. do 2023. godine, a podatci se sastoje od mjesečnih opažanja. Budući da su neke varijable nelinearne i nisu stacionarne na istoj razini, primijenjen je nelinearni autoregresivni distribuirani test vremenskih ograničenja (NARDL) koji uzima u obzir asimetrične učinke. Prema rezultatima istraživanja, utvrđeno je da silazna kretanja efektivnog tečaja povećavaju stopu iskorištenosti kapaciteta sektora namještaja u kratkom roku, sa značajnošću od 5 %, dok uzlazna kretanja efektivnog tečaja smanjuju indeks industrijske proizvodnje sektora namještaja, uz značajnost od 1 %. Osim toga, silazna kretanja efektivnog tečaja dugoročno negativno utječu na izvoz namještaja, dok kratkoročno pozitivno utječu na njegov uvoz.eninfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessEffective exchange rateForeign tradeCapacity utilization rateIndustrial production indexFurniture sectorEfektivni tečajVanjska trgovinaStopa iskorištenosti kapacitetaIndeks industrijske proizvodnjeSektor namještajaArticle76437938910.5552/drvind.2025.02482-s2.0-105024560575Q3WOS:001645012700003Q3