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    An empirical comparison of stock market bubbles
    (BMIJ, 2021) Korkmaz. Özge; Bilgin, Bari; Adalı, Zafer
    Financial asset bubbles occur due to systematic and continuous differences between fundamental and market values. Due to high growth periods and foreign capital inflows, bubbles are also seen in stock market indexes, especially in emerging market economies. This study analyzes the existence of bubbles in BIST100, IDX COMPOSITE, BOVESPA, MDEX, NIFTY 50, SHANGAI, and S&P 500 stock markets for the period 2009:01-2021:06. RADF, SADF, and GSADF tests are applied to detect bubbles on stock market closing prices. In addition, the emergence and demise dates of the bubbles are determined by employing the date-stamping method. The GSADF test gives more effective results and determines bubbles with different durations in all stock markets, except the S&P 500. The results reveal that the most inefficient market is IDX COMPOSITE, and S&P 500is the most efficient market. The analysis includes the S&P 500, the world's most liquid and most prominent stock market, for comparison. In this respect, bubbles occur more in emerging market exchanges. The findings also confirm the validity of the rational bubble law
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    How foreign direct investments drive trade flows in emerging economies
    (Üçüncü Sektör Sosyal Ekonomi Dergisi, 2021) Bilgin, Bari; Adalı, Zafer
    This study examines how FDI determines foreign trade in emerging market economies, including Turkey, India, China, Mexico, Brazil, and Indonesia, for 1979-2019. The hidden panel cointegration results show that there is a long-term relationship between FDI and exports in these countries. The results also indicate the existence of a cointegration relationship in both directions (increase and decrease together) between imports and exports in the long run. The existence of an asymmetrical relationship between FDIs and exports confirms this fact. The departure of FDIs causes a decrease in the exports of these countries. However, there is no positive bidirectional causality relationship between FDIs and exports and imports. In addition, there is no bidirectional causality relationship between imports and exports. The results of the analysis reveal that FDIs are not the primary determinant of foreign trade in the long run.
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    How oil prices drive inflation in Turkish economy: two different channels
    (Fiscaoeconomia (FSECON), 2020) Bilgin, Bari; Adalı, Zafer
    This study analyzes the impact of changes in oil prices on consumer inflation in Turkey. We compare the effects of the changes in crude oil and gasoline prices on the consumer prices. These effects differ symmetrically and asymmetrically for the period 2009:01-2020:04. For this purpose, inflationary effects are estimated using linear and nonlinear ARDL models. According to the findings, changes in both oil and fuel prices have asymmetric effects on inflation in the short run. Both models explain the changes in consumer inflation with the increases in oil prices in the long run. The result indicates that the decreases in oil prices are not taken into account in pricing decisions.