Modeling and forecasting of log production in Turkey

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dc.authorid0000-0001-7213-1366en_US
dc.authorid0000-0002-8563-0233en_US
dc.contributor.authorErsen, Nadir
dc.contributor.authorAkyüz, İlker
dc.contributor.authorBayram, Bahadır Çağrı
dc.contributor.authorÜçüncü, Tutku
dc.date.accessioned2020-03-04T11:48:44Z
dc.date.available2020-03-04T11:48:44Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.departmentAÇÜ, Artvin Meslek Yüksekokuluen_US
dc.description.abstractIn this study, modeling of log production using moving average, single exponential smoothing, double exponential smoothing and winters (multipcaltive and additive) methods and forecasting of monthly log production for 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 by means of the highest performing method was aimed. The data used in this study were obtained from the General Directorate of Forestry in Turkey. The data was monthly and included periods 2011-2016. Minitab 16 programme was used for determining best model. Comparisons of models are based on error criteria such as Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), and Mean Square Deviation (MSD). Forecasts were made by the method, which it has the lowest error criterion values. When the results of accuracy forecasting of applied methods are examined, it was found that winters's multipcaltive-seasonal exponential smoothing method has the highest accuracy forecasting among the obtained methods.
dc.identifier.citationErsen, N., Akyüz, İ., Bayram, B. C., & Üçüncü, T. (2017). Modeling and forecasting of log production in Turkey. International Journal of Ecosystems and Ecology Science (IJEES), 7(4), 791–796.en_US
dc.identifier.endpage796en_US
dc.identifier.issue4en_US
dc.identifier.startpage791en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11494/1996
dc.identifier.volume7en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/A
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.institutionauthorErsen, Nadir
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherHealth & Environment Assocen_US
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Journal Of Ecosystems And Ecology Science IJEES
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectLog productionen_US
dc.subjectWintersen_US
dc.subjectMoving averageen_US
dc.subjectExponential smoothingen_US
dc.titleModeling and forecasting of log production in Turkeyen_US
dc.typeArticle

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