Forecasting foreign trade of Bosnia and Herzegovina for wood and articles of wood, wood Charcoal by Seasonal ARIMA model
Yükleniyor...
Dosyalar
Tarih
2017
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
International University of Sarajevo
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
In this study, it is aimed that the analysis of export and import values of Bosnia and Herzegovina for wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal with seasonal ARIMA model and forecasting of export and import values for next term by the best appropriate seasonal ARIMA model. The data used in this study were obtained from Trade statistics for international business development (TRADEMAP) and monthly data covering the period of January 2007 and December 2015. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was used for the stationarity test. Temporary model that have smallest values of forecasting accuracy measurement was determined. The appropriateness of the model (whether plot of autocorrelation has white noise) was determined by using the Box-Ljung test. As a result, ARIMA (3,1,0)(0,1,2)12 model was found as the best forecasting model for both export and import series. It was estimated that export value of Bosnia and Herzegovina for wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal is approximately 531 million$, while import value is 160 million$ in 2020.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Export, Forecasting, Import, Seasonal ARIMA model, Wood and articles of wood, Wood charcoal
Kaynak
Periodicals of Engineering and Natural Sciences
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Q2
Cilt
5
Sayı
1
