Projections of meteorological drought events in the upper Kızılırmak basin under climate change scenarios

Basit Öğe Kaydı
dc.authorid0000-0002-3700-4377en_US
dc.contributor.authorSelçuk, Sefa Furkan
dc.contributor.authorÇirci Selçuk, Burcu
dc.contributor.authorSarıoğlu Cebeci, Meltem
dc.date.accessioned2024-12-09T12:42:14Z
dc.date.available2024-12-09T12:42:14Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.departmentAÇÜ, Mühendislik Fakültesi, Çevre Mühendisliği Bölümüen_US
dc.description.abstractClimate change, whose negative impacts are becoming increasingly apparent as a result of human actions, intensifies the drought problems to dangerous levels. The development of local-scale drought projections is crucial to take necessary precautions for potential risks and possible effects of drought. In this study, drought analysis was conducted in the Upper Kızılırmak Basin using the standard precipitation index (SPI) method for the near future (2020–2049), mid-century (2050–2074), and late century (2075–2099). The precipitation data required for the SPI were gathered from the data sets developed for the SSP climate change scenarios of the four chosen global climate models. Precipitation data has been made more convenient for local analysis studies with the statistical downscaling method. Forecasts have been created for the temporal variation and spatial distribution of drought events. The study findings indicate that, under the SSP 2-4.5 scenario, drought-related effects of climate change will decrease until 2100. On the other hand, the number and severity of drought events, as well as the duration of dry periods, will increase until 2100 under the SSP 5-8.5 scenario. According to the SSP 5-8.5 scenario, consisting of the most pessimistic forecasts, moderate drought will last 0–60 months, severe drought will last 0–30 months, and extreme drought will last 0–20 months in different regions of the area in the late century. The spatial distribution of droughts will differ based on the SPI index and climate change scenarios. Comparison of SPI and CZI data showed that both indices are effective in meteorological drought analyses.
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00704-024-04952-4
dc.identifier.endpage5646en_US
dc.identifier.issn0177798X
dc.identifier.issue6en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.startpage5629en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04952-4
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11494/5153
dc.identifier.volume155en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/A
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSpringeren_US
dc.relation.ispartofTheoretical and Applied Climatology
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.titleProjections of meteorological drought events in the upper Kızılırmak basin under climate change scenariosen_US
dc.typeArticle

Dosyalar

Orijinal paket
Listeleniyor 1 - 1 / 1
Küçük Resim
İsim:
sefafurkan.selcuk-burcu.circiselcuk-meltem.sarıoglucebeci.pdf
Boyut:
6.92 MB
Biçim:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Açıklama:
Tam Metin / Full Text
İndir
Lisans paketi
Listeleniyor 1 - 1 / 1
[ X ]
İsim:
license.txt
Boyut:
1.44 KB
Biçim:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Açıklama:
İndir

Koleksiyon

Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu
WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu
Çevre Mühendisliği Bölümü Yayın Koleksiyonu